Team Toledo... The Only Real Estate Solution for You!

Is this really a "drop" in listings from a few months ago?

Year over year, listings are up well over 200% while sales are down more than 20%.  Surprising, that we quote "year over year" for price increases (since still up marginally) but month over month listing decreases.  

Listings took a massive jump, with 149 new listings in the first week of 2009, to only 45 sales.  That is, as the "prime selling season" is entered, all those cancelled and withdrawn listings are re-entering the market.  Near the beginning of 2008, listings were only about 300 - now we have twice that many empty/vacant, with a total of "1138" which you quote.  That is a LOT more than last year, and listigns are already on the way up, again.

And price gains?  Sure, still up year over year, but if we use the values from peak ... down at least 15% from June 2008 already, and the following graphs show a trend which suggests that we have not yet bottomed out prices.

I find stories like this unfair to buyers.

Like those who bought in June 2008 ... only to see their neighbours now on sale for $50,000 less (true story, condos in Saskatoon)

"Now heres the catch, with the spring market already showing signs of heating up, DO NOT DELAY, in making a move"

Or what?  They miss another 10 to 15% drop in prices?

Another 149 additional listings (to about 1/3 that many sales)

Get laid off from Potash Corp and decide against it?

On sided journalism is dangerous.  You have a duty to both seller AND buyer.

Will be interesting to see if you actually publish my comments about:

1 - Prices Actually down over 15% past 6 months

2 - Prices still trending down, no sign of letting up

3 - Inventory actually WAY UP from last year, same time

4 - Sales down from last year

5 - General consensus "DO NOT DELAY" is misleading and that delaying may actually avoid a further 15% correction, or at least some further softening in prices

"6 months ago we had as many as 1900+ listings on the market in areas 1-5. Today we are down to 1138."

You're familiar with the phrase 'seasonal adjustment', I hope? It means that some things -- like the number of houses on the market -- go through cyclical phases: up in the summer, down in the winter. Pretending that a drop in inventory from June to December represents some great absorption is fallacious, bordering on deceitful.

If you don't believe me, check the SRAR's own statistics: http://www.srar.ca/Srarstats.php3#FiveYr

Check the line for TOTAL ACTIVE RES. YEAR END "AREAS1-5", indicating the number of residential properties for sale as of Dec 31 of each of the last five years. I'll synopsize here:

Dec '04 = 534 listings

Dec '05 = 449 listings

Dec '06 = 253 listings

Dec '07 = 346 listings

Dec '08 = 1127 listings

Sure, spring is traditionally the 'prime selling season' (there's that 'seasonal adjustment' thing again), but people who want to sell need to realize that they are competing against at least three times as many listings as this time last year, and FOUR times as many listings as Jan '07.

And that's just *active* listings. A number of condo listingsshow one or two representative samples, along with a comment like, "And many similar units besides!" This would indicate that in those cases one 'listing' may be a front for 5-30 actual units for sale.

And that's the *real* truth.

It makes it very difficult to promote a profession and its organization when "spin" is more important than reality.  Yes, it could be a good time to buy, because there are lots of opportunities and the market is lowering the ridiculous prices that we have seen previously.

BUT, the "buy now" sales talk WILL NOT gain you any clients - and you have now lost a potential client.  If you will not be straight with people about the fact that the market is continuing to decline and that if more properties do come on the market (as is typical in the spring) that this will NOT raise prices, but rather could lower prices.

I wonder why Real Estate professionals and their organizations are not working harder at being realistic with home sellers, home buyers and the community in general.  It would raise the level of respect for this profession and would help people trust these professionals.

"We Welcome ALL YOUR COMMENTS!"

well Toledo, looks like you are stuck with all these anti-spin nasty "facts" and "numbers" showing a very weak sales market.  To delete these factual argument would show you don't welcome "all [our] comments"

Everyone knows inventory is at near record highs for the season.  Everyone can see prices are still sliding, and the condos around them are vacant and not selling.

No one knows how far prices will slide, but we can all be certain it will be well below current prices, which after all, are more than double what they were a few years ago.

Suddenly, moving to Edmonton with cheaper housing, lower taxes and higher wages makes  a lot more sense.  Friends there all have cheaper rent than comparable in Saskatoon.  Saskatoon is a tough sell these days.

Nick (probably from norm's site) points above that 149 new listings in the first week of January alone

That's a lot more inventory

Lots of cancelled listings earlier this fall, when they wouldn't sell, those haven't gone anywhere, going to have to re-enter the market with sellers finally accepting the peak was last spring

Great if you bought in 2006, your house will still close at prices mid 2007 (up 50%?) but sucks if you bought in spring 2008, your house might close at prices from mid 2007 (down 30%?)

You know, if you had just stopped while you were ahead with both of your paragraphs, I wouldn’t really have much of an issue with what you’re claiming. Just for fun, let’s take a closer look, shall we?

“but in our little corner of the market in Saskatchewan and more specifically in Saskatoon, we are doing just fine”

Really? What is your definition of “just fine”? Perhaps you haven’t heard of a little something called the “global economic crisis”? Oil is trading at $36/brl as I write, down more than $100/brl since its peak in July of 2008. This does not bode well for the short-term future of Saskatchewan’s nascent oil and gas industry. Other commodities are well down from their peaks, as are agriculture and metals. Stock in the darling company of the province, Potash Corp, has fallen by more than half since the summer (-52.160%).

Here is a short list of how this GLOBAL economic crisis may be affecting “our little corner of the market”, in case you missed it:

Mosaic: 1000 layoffs, (700 in Esterhazy, Saskatchewan and 300 in Colonsay)

http://tinyurl.com/9gspqw

Shore Gold: 89 layoffs

http://tinyurl.com/7u52r9

Cameco: 50 layoffs, with another 43 “temporary”

http://tinyurl.com/64zw8b

PotashCorp: 940 layoffs

http://tinyurl.com/7km986

PotashCorp to cut production-Global economic crisis pushes company to reduce output by two million tonnes

http://tinyurl.com/5uf62l

Oilsands Quest curtails northwest exploration- Company seeks flexibility in dealing with effects of stock market turmoil

http://tinyurl.com/6blsb2

“So you buyers out there don't delay or you will be sorry.”

Hmm. What will buyers be sorry for, exactly? Potentially saving themselves tens of thousands of dollars? Did you or your readers miss this recent story?:

Average house price falls

Decreased about $40,000 since June 2008

http://tinyurl.com/8acgr7

With listings up 226% YOY and sales down 22% YOY, prices are not likely to “stabilize” soon, never mind rise anytime soon. If you have evidence to the contrary, I’d certainly like to hear it.

Listen, it’s obvious that as a businessperson that you need to *sell* for a living, but deliberately leading your customers down the garden path is something else altogether. You may think that letting your customers have access to all the data may “cost” you a few sales in the short run, but you’ll probably find that letting them decide the best course of action for themselves as fully informed individuals will work better for you in the long run.

Team Toledo - watch out!! You seem to have caught the attention of the bears from Norm's blog. I feel for you. There is no escaping them now. They have nothing better to do with their time than scream that the real estate sky is, and forever will be, falling. I don't know what you can do about it. They all love Norm's stats, opinions, and blog; and will stop at next to nothing in their efforts to crush your blog. I might suggest you publish some sort of a more realistic retraction to your current statements, which appear to be biased and directed solely at gullable buyers. But I warn you - these folks will hound you for the rest of their days. They don't tire easily lol. If you need proof, visit Norm's blog. The poor guy devotes a lot of time to these losers. Be careful or you too will get caught up in their insanity.

Good to see Bud also has a lot of time for this

Still, prices are down at least 15% on average from June

And how do you deny this price graph for Saskatoon?

Looks like it will start going up any time now?

Darn losers with their number debunking the "boom" Hype!

Why can't they just enjoy their low paying Saskatchewan jobs, and ignore that Alberta now has cheaper housing (Edmonton) and an average family income over $10,000 Higher anually? (with lower taxes, cheaper gas, and similar insurance for grown ups!)

renter's a bully? for noticing "We Welcome ALL YOUR COMMENTS!" from you guys

We should all Buy Now ... being that we're all smart enough to read between the lines we know that's what they're saying, unfortunately, also smart enough to know numbers mean boom is over, again the graph

"DO NOT DELAY, in making a move"

that was to highlight that some properties were better than before?

they'll be even better in 12 months though...

Toledo Blog = "We Welcome ALL YOUR COMMENTS! This is our "Real Estate Truth" Blog, where our SOLE MISSION is to give you the real TRUTH about what's going on in the Saskatoon real estate market"

Renter = ""We Welcome ALL YOUR COMMENTS!" well Toledo, looks like you are stuck with all these anti-spin nasty "facts" and "numbers" showing a very weak sales market

"

Reply from Toledo = "Renter, don't be a bully, if i want to remove your comments I'll do so"

oh that Renter, always with "nasty" numbers being a "bully" over fear mongering ", DO NOT DELAY, in making a move" from Toledo

What the...

Team Toledo Post:

"If you read the blog no where in there did i say that if you did not buy now you would regret it."

Last sentence from the second paragraph of blog post:

"So you buyers out there don't delay or you will be sorry."

Team Toledo Post:

"Thers no spin, no GOT TO BUY NOW propaganda."

Last paragraph of blog post:

"Now heres the catch, with the spring market already showing signs of heating up, DO NOT DELAY, in making a move. "

Come on... honestly. Do you normally get morons for readers? As a potential buyer, this pisses me off. No wonder people thinks all real estate agents are greedy slime balls (well, there are a *few* honest ones). Everyone already knows a real estate agent will always say "Now is a great time to buy", even if he/she knows you lose money the next day. Why even bother with real estate agents anymore. It's pathetic.

"Renter, don't be a bully, if i want to remove your comments I'll do so."

Who's being the bully?

Your poor blog. I bet it's recieved more hits in the last 24 hours than it's had in any 24 hours in months. Norm has removed the link to your blog that was dumped in his. I hope for your sake it helps.  Being that they've already decided that you're not honest, you're only trying to milk gullable fools for cash, and you're trying to instill fear in buyers, I don't know what you can do to stop this. If you engage in debate, this will be simply another outlet for their drivel. If you don't, they will hound you for the rest of their days lol. I'd say the best solution (at least for today) is go about your business and perhaps call Norm to ask some advice. He seems to know how to keep all of these folks in check and maintain a modicum of sanity on his blog. Well, sort of.

"Bookrat... all i was trying to do was highlight what was available in the 5 price ranges."

Scott:

If all you had actually done was to 'highlight what was available in the 5 price ranges' I don't think you would have provoked any reaction whatsoever. That would be useful information for your clients and potential visitors to your site.

But you didn't stop there. You also stated:

- That all that bad media coverage doesn't apply here -- that "Saskatoon [is] doing just fine." Thing is, the bare statistics and even the media releases from a biased source such as the SRAR all indicate otherwise.

- That people better rush in: "buyers don't delay or you will be sorry." (You even restated it in capital letters: "DO NOT DELAY")

You also took a normal seasonal adjustment in inventory and used further loaded emotional phrases like "huge drop" "spring market... heating up" and "here's the catch" to cause fear and imply that the inventory trend would continue downwards. There was no indication that inventory was still DOUBLE the previous recorded high for January, or that the Months Of Inventory measure still showed a half-year's worth of sales available, or that inventory would be expected to climb again soon going into the 'prime selling season'.

In short, there was no balance -- only spin and fearmongering. And that's what got people riled up.

If you would like to know how Norm 'keeps us in check' (to use Bud's verbiage), it is by treating his readers, respondents, and clients as human beings with inherent self-worth and deserving of respect, rather than simply as walking wallets whose only purpose is to improve his bottom line. And he fairly reports the bad news as well as the good without attempting to stampede people into a course of action that may not be to their own personal benefit.

I can't speak for anyone else, but were you to do the same, I would happily 'go away'.

I am building a new business in the Saskatoon area and I am looking to buy a home. I have looked at the trends and looked at the global market and formed some opinions of my own. But, ever diligent, I ask realtors and read the local business reports. I have found some people who sell homes who have said that my decision to rent for a while is a very good choice. I personally believe a 20% correction is coming. I say this because the ridiculous increase over the past 2 years had to correct itself. Bad timing with the impending economic catastrophe will bring home prices down further. Yes, catastrophe. We won't start to feel the pain for another 6 or 8 months, but it is coming. The delay is because many projects on the go have passed the point of no return (as did mine) and it would not be cost effective to stop. But, there is no more work on the boards of those who are finishing these projects. So, upon completion, massive layoffs will occur. If you look at how many companies have shelved big projects, you may have a different view on the near and mid-range future. Billions in the Bakken oilfield have been shelved.

 This doesn't mean I am correct, it just means that all signs point to a considerable decrease in the prices. Now, there may be a lot less homes for sale, but what wasn't mentioned is that builders have dramatically scaled back their production. These numbers are easy to look up.

 Prices are still artificially high right now because there are still many people who bought at a very high price and can't afford to sell too much lower. At some point, they will either accept the loss and sell to get rid of the payment and put cash in the bank, or the bank who holds the note will do it for them. Many of these people are Alberta speculators who missed the boat and didn't sell in time. I have personally had 5 Albertans phone me on several occasions trying to sell me their home in S'toon. They got my number by word of mouth that I was moving back to Sask and needed a home. So, if they phoned me (it became obvious that there was some desperation), how many more are out there.

 Already new home prices are falling and builders are still making a profit selling 1250 sq ft bungalows for 325,000. They won't get the record margins they've had, but they will need to carry on business as usual. This will force the hands of current owners to sell. But, I'm sure they will hang on as long as possible.

 I do agree that this is peak selling season. Therefore, I believe that the end of the spring will see the highest correction in prices. I will wait until then to buy.

After all of this, I could be dead wrong. But, I have seen what happened in Alberta (twice) and I have seen booms and busts. I have always found it odd that after many, many, years, people always figure that they know better and keep repeating the same mistakes. It is human nature to repeat the mistakes of the past. Since there are people who believe now is the time to buy, and others like myself who figure it's time to be patient, by the time it is all said and done, there will be a great deal of people who will have made a mistake. I just think I would rather err on the side of caution rather than pay 50 or 60 thousand dollars too much. If I am wrong, prices will stay about the same and I wasted 6 or 8 grand on rent. But, they won't go up 50 or 60 thousand in that time. There won't be another boom like this for 10 years. It will come again when the economy recovers and if the Bakken Oilfield is for real.

 Good luck to everyone.

Not sure it's a "good time" to buy now, maybe better than last year, but I would agree with Glenn. Saskatoon's market looks like it could go down another 20% price wise.  It started to correct later than the rest of the west, and has farther down to go.  As well, there was a Merril Lynch study that pegged it as the most over valued market in Canada, and with a rapid increase in prices over 2 years I would have to agree.

To Team Toledo "So you buyers out there don't delay or you will be sorry".

Is that a tongue in cheek type comment?

You aren't serious are you?

Especially if prices do likely go down 20%?

"Aside from the last year or so, real estate has always been and probably always will be buy and hold, a long term investment."

That sounds reasonable.

Yes, nominal prices may always recover. But at the same time while you are being pragmatic and realistic, you also have to admit some percentage of people feeling pressured to buy in 2007/2008 while real estate was at a speculative parabolic top may not recover their equity (if they had any) for some time. If they recover in some number of years, you may eventually be right. But that’s some number of years which many people don’t recognize and most likely aren’t being told by most realtors.

I think if you are a first-time buyer, you have to realistically ask yourself: if you purchase now, will you be able to either:

A) be able to sit on negative equity for some time, and/or

B) put up enough of a down payment to cover the potential negative equity and be prepared to potentially see that down payment reduced to zero (and beyond)?

Btw, who is this "the great real estate savior " you speak of??

I simply must know.

"I'll be making another post soon to investors and why it is a good time to be putting your money back into Sask real estate. Coming Soon"

sure prices will recover in the medium term, but if they held off for another 10 to 15% price drop, they'd make more money and faster

some buddies bought condos in the past half year, all ARE sorry they didn't wait, with prices of adjacent units down since, ie the next store neighbour is on sale for $30,000 or 10% less.  That may take a few years just to break even, IF they don't get LAID OFF in the mean time.

It's NEVER a good idea to buy a house or condo that you can't afford.

Sorry, Due to the negative nature of this comment, the moderator had no choice but to block it. Sorry for any inconvenience.

The real estate market is much weaker,

I bought this spring, and now after being laid off looking around I have no hope of selling my house for even close to what I paid.

Real estate agents should be liable for hyping up the market to clients, who make major decisions on their "hype".  I am looking at close to $100,000 drop in the value of my house.  And when I bought, there were only a few hundred houses - total, across all of Saskatoon.  Now there are that many places for sale in my one area of the city alone.  I either have to sell at a significant loss, or rent out the basement, work 2 lesser jobs and maybe send the wife back to work!

My advice to everyone out there, the market is not bottomed out yet, if you're like me, save up now, rent out the basement and just take your lumps.  Buying on the way down is a horrible idea.  It's not like waiting another year is going to mean any less selection, but might mean what you get is at significant savings!  If you must sell, cut your losses, do so now and move to Alberta.  Otherwise, working over time at a lesser local job or having the stay at home mom return to work may be necessary.

Don't believe the hype, rent within your means, save the difference in a new savings account or some big blue chip equities.

how about housing more expensive in Saskatoon than Alberta?

when Saskatoon wages still are a lot lower

how about housing inventory way up in Saskatoon?

with prices down elsewhere, we're just late to the crash

and people should not be leveraging for their RRSP's (investing money they don't have) but SO many are doing that/did do that for housing - often with BAD advise from fear mongering realtors

not sure if jrock was using anecdotal evidence about Saskatoon being more expensive than Alberta to buy a house... well here's an objective study just out that says the same!  at 4.6 years income, saskatoon is seriously unaffordable, a whole year of income to buy average home ... #27 in affordability behind Edmonton and well behind Ottawa, with its high house prices and low wages!

http://www.fcpp.org/pdf/dhi-frontier-20080127.pdf

Buy now, or regret missing out on buying in one of Canada's most over priced markets in the middle of a commodity bust!

Saskatoon real estates is over priced and apparently due for a further substantial correction!  House prices well above Edmonton relative to our lower income?  Crazy!!

That study has Regina taking 3.5 years of income to Saskatoon's 4.6 years

Makes sense, median income about $5,000 more each year in Regina

Houses are cheaper in Regina

Really similar cities, Saskatoon better uni, neither that good

Regina more reliable/high paying government, steel, upgrader jobs

Financially, living in Saskatoon really does not make sense when Regina, Winnipeg and even Edmonton take up to a year and a half less income to buy a house

""Do Not Delay"" move to Regina and save your money

and get a raise